Invest 92W
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Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Invest 92W east of Luzon in the Philippines. Low chance of development. Current wind speed 30km/h.
Maximum sustained surface winds are around 25–35 km/h (13–18 knots). Minimum sea-level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 hPa.
Satellite imagery shows sparse flaring convection within the southwestern semicircle of an extremely broad low-level circulation (LLC).
A 07/01:45 UTC ASCAT MetOp-C image shows a swath of 20–30 km/h (10–15 knots) southerly winds within the southern edge of an elongated circulation. The system is showing signs of being a possible monsoon depression, with a very large radius of maximum winds and pockets of enhanced vorticity along the southern and eastern edge.
Analysis shows a moderately favorable environment, with moderate upper-level equatorward flow aloft and low wind shear of 20–30 km/h (10–15 knots). Warm sea surface temperatures of 30–31°C are generally conducive for development if the LLC can continue to consolidate.
Deterministic models are currently split, with the GFS being slightly more aggressive, indicating 92W will remain relatively stationary over the next couple days.
As for the ensemble models, the ECENS shows two distinct areas of possible development, 92W and an area originating north of Yap, which will eventually merge and show moderate development.
The GEFS maintains a single area of development associated with 92W that remains quasi-stationary throughout.