Typhoon Yinxing (Marce) 2024

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Typhoon Yinxing 2024 (台風22号) east of Luzon in the Philippines. Current wind speed 140km/h. Max 185km/h.

Yinxing (Philippine name Marce) is located 719 km east-northeast of Manila, Philippines, and has tracked northwestward at 30 km/h (16 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 11 meters (36 feet).

Yinxing will continue on its current northwestward track up to 36 hours. Afterward, a secondary subtropical ridge building in from the west near Hainan will slow down the system then assume steering, driving the cyclone on a more westward trajectory through the Luzon Strait and into the South China Sea.

The favorable environment will promote a gradual intensification to a peak of 185 km/h (100 knots) in 36 hours, fueled by a jolt of increased poleward outflow as the system approaches the southwesterly jets ahead of a transiting mid-latitude trough.

After 36 hours, the relative wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content values decrease in the wake of a previous cyclone (23W), interaction with Luzon, then the drift into a cold northeasterly surge in the South China Sea will slowly erode the system down to 130 km/h (70 knots) in 5 days.

Forecast models are in very tight agreement with an even across spread of a mere 185 km in 3 days. Afterward, the models significantly spread out with NVGM the notable and erratic right-of-track outlier, lending high confidence up to 3 days, then low confidence afterward, to the JTWC track forecast.

There is medium confidence to the intensity forecast up to 3 days, then low confidence afterward.