Tropical Cyclone Vince 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Vince 2025 in the southwest Indian Ocean. Current wind speed 205km/h.

Vince is located 2787 km east of Port Louis, Mauritius, and has tracked westward at 15 km/h (8 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 11.9 meters (39 feet).

Vince has slowed slightly due to the weakened subtropical ridge and passing major shortwave trough but has continued westward.

A short-lived dip or turn west-southwestward is possible over the next 24 hours. However, the shortwave trough is forecast to quickly move eastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to re-build to the south. This will accelerate the system westward to west-southwestward over the next 3 days along the northern edge of the subtropical ridge.

Vince will weaken gradually over the next 36 hours but is expected to reintensify in 1.5 to 3 days as poleward outflow improves into the midlatitude westerlies.

After 3 days, the steering ridge will re-orient north-south, with a broad upper-level subtropical trough digging equatorward and enveloping the system, which will drive the system southward over the next 5 days.

Environmental conditions will degrade in the extended period leading to a pronounced weakening trend, with increasing (30–35 knots) wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures (25–26°C).

Forecast models remain in good agreement through the forecast period, with a 93 km to 148 km cross-track spread in 3 to 5 days.

EPS and GEFS ensemble guidance shows a slightly wider spread of solutions but remains in overall good agreement lending high confidence to the JTWC forecast.

Reliable intensity guidance remains in fair agreement although there is significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast due to the compact nature of the system and the tendency for these systems to fluctuate quickly.