Satellite images and tracking maps of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Shaheen-Gulab 2021, September 23 - October 4. Max wind speed 130km/h.
Shaheen-Gulab is located 406 km north of Masirah Island, and has moved westward at 9 km/h (5 knots) over the past 6 hours.
Shaheen-Gulab will move west-southwestward through the duration of the forecast. Some mesoscale variation in track is expected as the system moves around the higher terrain west of Muscat, but otherwise the track should take the system into the empty quarter in 36 hours.
Shaheen-Gulab is expected to make landfall within the next couple of hours near Al Suwayq, Oman. The system if forecast to maintain 65-knot intensity through landfall, but once ashore will rapidly weaken due to terrain interaction and ultimately dissipate over the empty quarter in 36 hours.
There is little to no disagreement in the track guidance through landfall, with increasing spread thereafter as the vortex weakens and dissipates.
NAVGEM is the only significant outlier of the group, showing the remnants of the system tracking across southern UAE.
The remainder of the consensus members are closely clustered about the mean and the JTWC forecast lies close the mean with high confidence. Intensity guidance all agrees on a steady intensity through landfall and rapid weakening thereafter.
The JTWC forecast closely follows the consensus mean with high confidence.
Maximum significant wave height is 6.7 meters (22 feet).
Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).