Satellite images and tracking maps of Typhoon Roke 2022, September 25 - October 3. Max wind speed 155km/h.
Roke (Philippine name Luis) is located 952 km east of Yokosuka, Japan, and has moved northeastward at 35 km/h (19 knots) over the past 6 hours.
Roke continues to commence subtropical transition (STT), with CIMSS automated phase classification indicating the system is borderline tropical and subtropical.
The overall track remains consistent with the previous forecast, as the system transits quickly northeastward within environmental conditions that are generally unfavorable with high wind shear, and marginal sea surface temperatures (25-26°C) offset by very strong poleward outflow. These unfavorable conditions will continue to impact Roke, which will result in a decreasing intensity trend. Additionally, over the next 24 hours, the track motion will begin to slow with the track shifting more eastward as the steering ridge weakens.
After 24 hours, the track motion slows even further as the system becomes blocked by a transitory anticyclone which builds poleward of the systems path. As this occurs the intensity will continue to decrease further as sea surface temperatures cool along with dry air entrainment becoming advected into the systems core.
In 36 hours, Roke is expected to complete STT as the system becomes positioned under a mid-level cold core low. Model guidance remains in good agreement with only a 135 km cross-track spread between consensus members over the next 36 hours, with the exception of NAVGEM which remains on the northern side of track guidance. Therefore, there is high confidence in the JTWC track forecast.
Intensity guidance remains mixed as COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) and HWRF representing the high end of guidance, while GFS and Decay-SHIPS show a rapid weakening from the initial intensity.
For these reasons the JTWC intensity forecast is assessed with medium confidence and follows closely to the multi-model consensus.
Maximum significant wave height is 8.2 meters (27 feet).
Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).