Tropical Storm Pulasan 2024

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Pulasan 2024 (台風14号) in the East China Sea. Current wind speed 75km/h. Max 110km/h.

Pulasan (Philippine name Helen) is located 598 km southwest of Sasebo, Japan, and has tracked northwestward at 43 km/h (23 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 5.5 meters (18 feet).

Pulasan is forecast to continue tracking northwestward along the edge of the subtropical ridge to the northeast over the next 24 hours.

In around 24 hours, Pulasan is anticipated to make landfall near Shanghai and a trough that begins to break down an extension of the ridge creates a weak steering environment causing very slow track speeds around that time.

In 36 hours, Pulasan is forecast to then start an east-northeastward track as the ridge takes over as the primary steering influence once again.

In around 2 days, track speeds are expected to greatly increase due to interaction with the jet marking the beginning of extratropical transition.

The system will then track briskly along the southern coast of South Korea in the Korea Strait and into the Sea of Japan. As a result of the baroclinic zone being pushed south by the trough, Pulasan is forecast to quickly complete extratropical transition in around 3 days.

Regarding intensity, Pulasan is expected to gradually weaken as it heads toward Shanghai where it makes landfall as a borderline tropical storm.

Once the system makes it back out over water, a steady intensification trend will ensue, however strong wind shear will cap the intensity to a peak of 75 km/h (40 knots).

Model guidance is in better agreement with a larger bulk of guidance showing the sharp turn back over water rather than dissipation over eastern China.

After 36 hours, models vary in the sharpness of the turn with HWRF and HAFS-A both tracking the vortex through southern South Korea while GFS and its ensemble mean a bit further south, off the coast of South Korea.

The JTWC track forecast is placed with overall low confidence due to the continued possibility of dissipation in eastern China. Intensity guidance is in moderate agreement with some variance due to track differences and time over land.

The JTWC intensity forecast is placed close to consensus with low confidence as well for similar reasons.