Hurricane Priscilla 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Hurricane Priscilla 2025 near Mexico in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Current wind speed 80mph. Max 110mph.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Baja California Sur Pacific coastline within the Tropical Storm Watch area today (8 October). Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla.

Moisture associated with Priscilla will lead to heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk across portions of the southwestern United States from late this week into this weekend.

Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding.

Although it is still a hurricane, Priscilla is gradually weakening. Deep convection within the system has diminished significantly, especially over the eastern portion of the circulation, and the eye has become poorly-defined. Cloud tops have warmed to -60 to -70°C. Using a blend of subjective Dvorak CI- and T-numbers, the intensity is set to 100 mph (85 knots) for this advisory. This is also in good agreement with a blend of objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The initial motion estimate is slowly northwestward, or around 305/7 knots. Priscilla is currently moving along the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system centered near Texas. In 48 hours or so, a large trough or cut-off low near the California coast should induce a turn toward the north. By 72 hours, Priscilla will likely have weakened into a shallow cyclone moving in the low-level environmental flow. The official track forecast lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions and is quite close to the previous NHC forecast.

Priscilla has weakened while moving over ocean waters that have likely been cooled by upwelling beneath the large and slow-moving tropical cyclone. The system should traverse even cooler waters to the west of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days, resulting in steady weakening. Priscilla is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in about 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance suite, suggesting that the system could weaken even faster than indicated here.