Tropical Storm Podul 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Podul 2025 (台風11号) south of Japan. Current wind speed 95km/h. Max 120km/h.

Podul is located 361 km south of Iwo To, and has tracked west-northwestward at 17 km/h (9 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 6.1 meters (20 feet).

Podul will move westward for the next 2 days under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge centered over the East China Sea.

The system will curve northwestward in 3 to 5 days while rounding the edge of the elongated subtropical ridge. Podul will intensify to a peak of 120 km/h (65 knots) in 2 days while in favorable warm sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and moderate upper-level divergence.

The rate of intensification will be capped by strong 45–55 km/h (25–30 knots) wind shear during the first 36 hours. A dry environment will linger to the north of Podul associated with the upper-level ridge that builds over Japan.

The upper-level easterlies will enhance with the building ridge after 2 days, increasing northeasterly wind shear unfavorably above 75 km/h (40 knots) for the remainder of the forecast.

Mid-level dry air intrusion coupled with the elevated northeasterly shear will initiate weakening for the remainder of the forecast period as the vertical structure of Podul degrades.

Podul will weaken to 55 km/h (30 knots) by the end of the forecast period after making landfall on mainland China. Deterministic model guidance is in good agreement that Podul will be driven westward, and then northwestward while driven by the subtropical ridge to the north.

There are slight variations in the strength and how far south the ridge extends. The cross-track spread at 3 days is 511 km. By the end of the forecast, the spread opens to 907 km.

Notably, the GFS solution lies south of consensus, but the ECMWF and GEFS solutions are significantly closer to the multi-model consensus mean.

The JTWC track forecast lies closely to the north of the consensus mean. The JTWC intensity guidance is significantly spread with peak intensities between 100–140 km/h (55–75 knots).

HAFS-A peaks at approximately 140 km/h (75 knots) at 36 hours, while COAMPS-TC (GFS-based) reaches a peak of 20 km/h (12 knots) at 12 hours. The track variations significantly affect how strongly the system will erode due to dry air and strong shear.

If the system tracks farther north, the dry air and shear will have a stronger effect than if Podul tracks south.

The JTWC intensity forecast lies slightly north of the multi-model intensity consensus.