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Hurricane Olaf 2021

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Satellite images and tracking maps of Category 2 Hurricane Olaf 2021, September 4 - 14. Max wind speed 100mph.

Olaf has been without deep convection for about the last 18 hours, and it is therefore being designated as a remnant low. A scatterometer pass from several hours ago still showed winds of 25-30 knots occurring to the north of the center, so the initial intensity remains 35 mph (30 knots). Weakening is expected during the next few days while the remnant low traverses waters of about 25°C and through a very dry air mass. Global model fields show the circulation opening up into a trough anywhere between 2 and 6 days from now, so as a compromise the official forecast indicates this happening by day 4, but it's likely to be sooner than that.

Olaf is now losing latitude and moving south of due west, or 260/5 knots. A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge to the north is expected to force the remnant low to the west-southwest and southwest during the next several days. In fact, the models have been trending toward a more pronounced loss of latitude, and this final NHC track forecast has been shifted southward from the previous advisory — close to the TVCE model consensus but not nearly as far south as the HCCA aid.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Berg. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).