Tropical Storm Octave 2019

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Satellite images and tracking maps of Tropical Storm Octave 2019, October 17 - 21. Max wind speed 45mph.

Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12 hours. The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon. Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are estimated to be 30 knots based on recent scatterometer data. The remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40 percent.

The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2 knots. The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net distance of 50-100 nautical miles during that period. A slight westward adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies along the western edge of the guidance envelope.

Information provided by NHC.

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