Tropical Storm Nokaen (Ada) 2026

Live tracking map, satellite, radar, and forecasts of Tropical Storm Nokaen 2026 (台風1号) east of Luzon in the Philippines. Current wind speed 85km/h. Max 95km/h.

Nokaen (Philippine name Ada) is located 448 km east-southeast of Manila, Philippines, and has tracked northwestward at 19 km/h (10 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 5.8 meters (19 feet).

Nokaen is projected to maintain a northwestward trajectory along the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the next 24 hours.

Subsequently, the system is anticipated to gradually recurve northeastward as it crosses the subtropical ridge axis. A competing subtropical ridge over the South China Sea will induce a minor deceleration in forward motion during this transition.

Beyond 36 hours, the track is expected to switch to a east-northeastward direction. As the primary subtropical ridge atrophies and propagates eastward in around 4 days, Nokaen is forecast to shift to a southeastward heading, under the steering influence of the remnant ridge now centered to the west-northwest.

Regarding intensity, Nokaen is expected to reach a peak intensity of approximately 95 km/h (50 knots) within the next 12 hours, capitalizing on the marginally favorable conditions.

After 24 hours, a significant increase in wind shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air are anticipated to initiate a gradual and sustained weakening trend throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

Model guidance has achieved a higher degree of consensus. All models now show a fluid recurvature to the northeast, including the previous outlier—JGSM.

The cross-track spread among ensemble members is currently around 148 km at 3 days, bolstering confidence in the initial track forecast, but indicating increased uncertainty soon after.

All of the available model guidance, except the recent ECMWF run, reflect the previously analyzed shift in primary steering mechanism witnessed by a southward turn towards the end of the forecast period.

The JTWC track forecast is positioned in close proximity to the multi-model consensus. Intensity guidance is in substantial agreement, indicating a peak between now and the next 24 hours, followed by subsequent weakening.

The JTWC intensity forecast is placed near the intensity consensus with medium confidence, due to a relatively high (25 knots) spread of intensity estimates in 4 to 5 days.