Tropical Storm Mun 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Mun 2025 (台風3号) southeast of Honshu, Japan. Current wind speed 100km/h. Max 130km/h.

Mun is located 793 km southeast of Yokosuka, Japan, and has tracked northward at 11 km/h (6 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 7.3 meters (24 feet).

Mun is traveling almost due north, along the western side of the steering ridge. However, the northern extension of this steering ridge is rapidly weakening, in favor of a building ridge over the central Marianas.

Over the course of the next 12 hours, Mun will gradually turn towards the east-northeast, driven along the northern side of the building ridge to the south.

After 2 days, the subtropical ridge to the south moves westward while a deep-layer bubble high develops east of Mun, driving the system poleward in 2 to 4 days.

After 4 days, the system will move into a break in the ridge and be caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies and quickly turn to the northeast.

In terms of intensity, as seen in the most recent satellite imagery and IR loops, the vortex may be trying to realign at the moment. As this process completes and poleward outflow improves, there should be enough warm water left to support a slow but steady intensification over the next 36 hours.

In around 60 hours, a strong mid-latitude trough and deformation zone will move in from the northwest, ushering in a sharp increase in shear and dry mid-level air, effectively decapitating and smothering Mun. This will mark the onset of both subtropical transition (STT) and a rapid weakening trend, which will continue through the remainder of the forecast period.

Deterministic track guidance shows little change from the previous run. NAVGEM, GALWEM and JGSM continue to race the system towards the northeast after 3 days, in line with their known biases.

Considered as unrealistic, these models have been discounted. The remainder of the guidance is in good agreement over the next 2 days, with even the GFS and GEFS moving into better agreement with the rest of the consensus.

After 3 days, the GFS breaks off from the pack however, and tracks far to the northwest before turning north at 4 days, along the 144E longitude line.

The remainder of the guidance package turns north-northwestward after 3 days before turning northeast after 4 days. The JTWC forecast is positioned close to the consensus mean through the forecast period.

Intensity guidance is in good agreement on the overall trend line, with a range of peak intensities between 110–140 km/h (60–75 knots).

The JTWC forecast is consistent with the consensus mean through the forecast.