Tropical Storm Man-yi 2024

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Man-yi 2024 (台風24号) near Guam. Current wind speed 85km/h. Max 215km/h.

Man-yi is located 61 km southeast of Navsta Guam, and has tracked southwestward at 30 km/h (16 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 6.7 meters (22 feet).

Man-yi is forecast to track generally westward over the next 2 days along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge to the north.

In around 3 days, the system is forecast to begin tracking northwestward as it rounds the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and heads toward northern Luzon.

Regarding intensity, Man-yi is forecast to steadily intensify to around 110 km/h (60 knots) at 24 hours. Afterwards the system is forecast to begin a rapid intensification phase over the next 2 days due to the highly conducive environment.

A peak intensity of 215 km/h (115 knots) is placed in around 3 days. After 3 days, the system is expected to begin interacting with the cooler waters left behind from the upwelling of Toraji and Usagi which will initiate a weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast period.

Model guidance is in good agreement on the track of Man-yi over the next 3 days with a 278 km cross-track spread at that time. After 3 days, models begin to diverge with some models (UKMET and GALWEM) tracking the vortex into the central Philippines while the main grouping has the vortex make a sharper turn toward northern Luzon.

The JTWC track forecast is placed closer to the main grouping with high confidence over the next 3 days and medium confidence thereafter. Intensity guidance is in moderate agreement with close agreement over the next 36 hours.

Peak intensities range from 175 km/h (95 knots) (GFS) to 240 km/h (130 knots) (COAMPS-TC) in around 3 days. Models agree overall on weakening after 3 days.

The JTWC intensity forecast is placed close to consensus throughout the forecast period with medium confidence.