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Tropical Storm Leslie 2024

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Tropical Storm Leslie

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Leslie 2024 in the central Atlantic Ocean. Current wind speed 70mph. Max 105mph.

The center of Leslie has been exposed for the past 6 hours, thanks to strong northerly wind shear. The center has continued to move farther away from the convection as the afternoon has progressed. The initial intensity is brought down to 70 mph (60 knots), which agrees with a blend of the various objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS.

Leslie continues to plow through a zone of strong northerly shear, and the SHIPS guidance and model fields indicate Leslie will continue to experience 45 mph (40 knots) of northerly to northeasterly shear for another 12 to 24 hours. In addition, Leslie is forecast to continue moving through a relatively dry environment. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next 12 to 24 hours, and the latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one due to the weaker initial intensity. If Leslie survives as a tropical cyclone for another two days, which is not guaranteed, it will approach a frontal zone in 2 to 3 days and could take on some frontal characteristics. While all of the models show Leslie dissipating by 4 to 5 days, there is significant uncertainty on whether Leslie will become extratropical or just dissipate.

Leslie is moving northwestward, or 315/7 knots. Model guidance is in good agreement that a northward turn will happen very soon as Leslie moves around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. On Friday and Friday night, the hurricane should speed up and turn to the northeast, followed by an east-northeastward turn as it accelerates further over the weekend. There is a bit of along-track spread in the guidance after 48 hours, as some of the models show Leslie accelerating faster toward the east-northeast. Only minor changes are made to the previous NHC track to account for the models being slightly farther west during the first 36 hours of the forecast.