Tropical Storm Krosa 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Krosa 2025 (台風9号) near the Northern Mariana Islands. Current wind speed 85km/h. Max 120km/h.

Krosa is located 1989 km south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan, and has tracked northwestward at 6 km/h (3 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 7 meters (23 feet).

Krosa is forecast to track northward over the next 3 days along the western edge of the subtropical ridge.

After 3 days, the system will turn northeastward as the subtropical ridge reorients. This is not a recurvature scenario with extratropical transition.

The system is not expected to accelerate and will not encounter the midlatitude westerlies until after the forecast period. Instead, the system will move along the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge within a reverse trough formation, with the surface trough extending from Taiwan northeastward to the system.

Environmental conditions are marginally favorable, with the high wind shear offset by vigorous equatorward outflow, which is fueling the rapidly cycling deep convective bursts. Therefore, the intensity is expected to remain relatively flat over the next 3 days.

After 2 days, the wind shear should relax, with improved eastward outflow. However, the system is expected to entrain dry air associated with the deep midlatitude trough.

After 3 days, environmental conditions will improve, with a re-moistening phase, enhanced poleward outflow and intensification to typhoon strength in 5 days.

Deterministic model guidance remains in good agreement over the next 3 days, with a 185 km cross-track spread at 3 days. After 3 days, guidance diverges, with significant differences in track speeds and the exact recurve point.

Reliable intensity guidance suggests intensification over the next 36 hours, which doesn’t make sense considering the clearly evident high wind shear impacting the system.

After 36 hours, the intensity guidance shows a weakening trend then flat trend over the next 84 hours. After 84 hours, the intensity guidance shows a sharp intensification trend.

The 25/12:00 UTC COAMPS-TC ensemble also shows potential for moderate intensification after 3 days, with 40–60% probabilities.