Tropical Storm Kirk 2024
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Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Kirk 2024 in the central Atlantic Ocean. Current wind speed 60mph. Max 125mph.
Kirk is continuing to become better organized this afternoon (30 September) on satellite imagery with a large burst of convection on the northern side of the center and an expanding outflow pattern aloft. All intensity estimates are rising, and the initial wind speed is set to 60 mph (50 knots), near the CIMSS-AiDT and DMINT values.
The motion of Kirk is about the same as before, westward at about 10 mph (10 knots). Very little change was made to the track forecast, with below-average model spread across the entire period due to well-defined steering flow from the subtropical high over the east-central Atlantic. Kirk should gradually move more west-northwestward by tomorrow and turn northwestward midweek, with a north-northwest turn likely by the end of the forecast period.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be quite conducive for strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a moist mid-level environment and low shear in forecast. Rapid intensification remains a notable possibility if this system can close off its inner core, though the latest microwave data shows that any formative eyewall is still open. Later on, the exact peak intensity is a bit of a mystery, since sometimes these favorable conditions can result in most of the energy going toward producing a large, but not necessarily stronger hurricane. Regardless, all signs point to Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane, possibly category 4, later this week and remaining intense for days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one and is between the dynamical model consensus and the statistical-dynamical models.