Typhoon Kalmaegi (Tino) 2025

Live tracking map, satellite, radar, and forecasts of Typhoon Kalmaegi 2025 (台風25号) east of Mindanao in the Philippines. Current wind speed 130km/h. Max 175km/h.

Kalmaegi (Philippine name Tino) is located 682 km north-northwest of Sonsorol, and has tracked west-southwestward at 24 km/h (13 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 6.1 meters (20 feet).

Kalmaegi is forecast to maintain a generally westward track over the next 24 hours while it transitions steering ridges from the subtropical ridge to its northeast to the subtropical ridge to its northwest. Landfall in Leyte is expected to occur in 12 to 24 hours with reemergence in the Sulu Sea anticipated in 24 to 36 hours.

In around 36 hours, the dominant subtropical ridge to the northwest of Kalmaegi will shift northward, allowing Kalmaegi to turn northwestward.

Kalmaegi will remain of a northwestward trajectory through the remainder of the forecast period. Terminal landfall is expected in 3 to 4 days in southern Vietnam.

Regarding intensity, Kalmaegi is forecast to continuously and rapidly intensify until landfall in Leyte. As a result, a peak intensity greater than 155 km/h (85 knots) may occur just prior to landfall—which is not reflected in the forecast points.

Likewise, an intensity below 120 km/h (65 knots) may occur in 24 to 36 hours while Kalmaegi is over the central Philippines, which is also not able to be represented in the forecast points.

After reemerging into the Sulu Sea in around 36 hours, Kalmaegi will encounter a second highly favorable environment, characterized by good divergence aloft, warm sea surface temperatures, and high moisture content. At this point, Kalmaegi will reintensify continuously, with intensification only halted by landfall in Vietnam.

Kalmaegi is expected to rapidly weaken over the mountainous terrain of southeast Asia, leading to full dissipation in 5 days. Deterministic model track guidance is in strong agreement that Kalmaegi will make landfall in northern Leyte before curving northwestward and tracking just north of Palawan.

Models are also in strong agreement that Kalmaegi will make terminal landfall in around 4 days, with slight variation in landfall location. As a result, the JTWC track forecast is placed with high confidence over the next 3 days and medium confidence in 3 to 5 days.

Reliable intensity guidance is in strong agreement that Kalmaegi will continue to intensify through landfall; however, models disagree on the weakening trend while Kalmaegi is over land in addition to the timing of the minimum intensity.

The disagreement over weakening in 24 to 36 hours causes variation in the rate of reintensification in the South China Sea, and therefore the second peak intensity before terminal landfall. As a result, the JTWC intensity forecast is assessed with medium confidence overall.