Tropical Storm Jude 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Jude 2025 southwest of Madagascar. Current wind speed 100km/h. Max 150km/h.

Jude is located 143 km north-northwest of Europa Island, and has tracked southeastward at 26 km/h (14 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 7.3 meters (24 feet).

Jude is forecast to continue tracking towards the southeast, along the southern side of a near-equatorial ridge centered to the north for the next 24 hours. Landfall along the southwest coast of Madagascar, near the town of toliara, is expected in around 24 hours.

The system will then continue tracking eastward, moving quickly over the southern portion of Madagascar, and reemerging over water in 36 to 48 hours.

Track speeds are expected to slow somewhat as the system crosses Madagascar but pick up speed once again after moving into the South Indian Ocean.

Once back over open waters, the system is expected to begin subtropical transition (STT) as it becomes embedded into the equatorward end of a frontal boundary.

In terms of intensity, the system is expected to intensify quickly over the next 12 hours as it takes advantage of the warm sea surface temperatures, robust poleward outflow channel and relatively low shear values.

Peak intensity is expected to be reached just prior to landfall, in 18 to 24 hours, and could be slightly higher than the discrete forecast values show.

Simultaneously with landfall, shear is expected to rapidly increase, accompanied by an influx of dry mid-level air, which combined with passage over land will result in a very sharp weakening as the system moves across Madagascar.

The circulation that emerges back over water is currently expected to retain gale-fore winds as it moves east, and merges with the baroclinic zone already in-place. However, the system may in fact dissipate prior to full STT, dependent upon the strength of the circulation that moves back over water after 36 hours.

Deterministic track guidance is in good agreement through landfall, with minimal cross- or along-track spread. Models begin to diverge after landfall with cross-track spread opening up to about 213 km at 36 hours, increasing even more through the remainder of the forecast.

GFS and GEFS have now shifted to reflect the rest of the consensus members in depicted a generally southeastward track, at least through the end of the forecast, though they do start to turn northward in 3 days.

The remainder of the guidance package is consistent with the JTWC forecast track, showing a track to the east that steadily slows down as ridging develops to the east and south after 2 days.

Intensity guidance is in good agreement that the system will intensify over the next 12 to 18 hours, reaching peak intensity between 95–100 km/h (50–55 knots) prior to landfall, followed by a sharp weakening over land and generally steady-state thereafter during STT.

The COAMPS-TC and HAFS-A are the significant outliers in this scenario however, depicting the system maintaining 50 knot or higher intensity over the next 4 days, which is on the face of it highly unlikely.

The JTWC forecast traces the HWRF, GFS, and Decay-SHIPS guidance with medium confidence.