Tropical Storm Jebi 2024
Last Modified:
Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Jebi 2024 (台風17号) south of Japan. Current wind speed 75km/h. Max 95km/h.
Jebi is located 826 km south of Yokosuka, Japan, and has tracked northward at 24 km/h (13 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 5.5 meters (18 feet).
Based on the improved environmental conditions previously discussed, Jebi is expected to intensify to minimal typhoon strength over the next day, with a peak intensity of 120 km/h (65 knots) in around 24 hours.
The track forecast is relatively straight-forward, with a northward track over the next 24 hours along the western edge of the subtropical ridge.
After 24 hours, the system will begin to interact with an upper-level shortwave trough and will commence extratropical transition (ETT). As the system recurves northeastward around the subtropical ridge axis, it will move under the jet and gain frontal characteristics, completing ETT in 2 days.
Steady weakening in 1 to 2 days is expected as the system encounters strong wind shear and tracks over cooler sea surface temperatures. Jebi will maintain a relatively compact region of gale-fore winds, primarily located over the eastern semicircle, as it passes east of the Kantō Plain.
The 29/18:00 UTC ECMWF ensemble (EPS) shows a tight grouping of solutions but clearly shows some uncertainty in the exact track, which could lead to some minor fluctuations in the CPAS over the next day.
The 30/00:00 UTC GFS ensemble (GEFS) shows a wider spread of solutions, with 2 solutions tracking the system over the coastal region east of Yokosuka. However, the bulk of the GEFS solutions are further off the coast.
Deterministic guidance comprising the JTWC track consensus (CONW) also shows a tight grouping of models over water east of Yokosuka, with a cross-track spread of 133 km at 24 hours.