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Tropical Storm Ialy 2024

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Tropical Storm Ialy

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Ialy 2024 in the South Indian Ocean. Current wind speed 75km/h. Max 85km/h.

Ialy is located 1224 km north of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and has tracked northwestward at 17 km/h (9 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 4.3 meters (14 feet).

Ialy is forecasted to continue tracking northwestward under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge to the southeast.

Over the next 24 hours, primary steering control shifts to a near-equatorial ridge centered over southern Africa. As this happens, Ialy will transition to an equatorward track through the forecast period.

In terms of intensity, the next 24 hours will likely be uneventful, as moderate wind shear, dry air entrainment, solid upper level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures battle for dominance.

After 24 hours, a victor is crowned as dry air entrainment, building wind shear and decreasing outflow conspire to weaken and eventually dissipate the system in 2 days and possibly sooner.

With few exceptions to the left and right of the consensus track, all available model guidance echoes the JTWC forecast track. For this reason, the JTWC track forecast is placed with overall medium confidence.

With the exception of Decay-SHIPS (NVGM version), reliable model intensity guidance is in good agreement that Ialy will generally stagnate over the next 24 hours after which the system weakens until dissipation in 2 days. For this reason, the JTWC intensity forecast is placed with high confidence.