Satellite images and tracking maps of Tropical Storm Hermine 2022, September 21 - 25. Max wind speed 40mph.
Hermine's structure overnight has deteriorated further. While occasional intermittent bursts of deep convection are still occurring to the north of the elongated surface circulation, this convection lacks organization. The system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone and, therefore, is being declared a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on Hermine.
Strong southwesterly shear greater than 45 mph (40 knots) and a high statically stable surrounding Saharan air mass should prevent the regeneration of organized convection during the next several days. The global models and the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance agree that the remnant low will open up into a trough of low pressure Tuesday, and the official forecast follows suit.
The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/6 knots. This general motion is expected to continue today (September 25) while the cyclone moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge. Beyond Monday morning, the remnant low is forecast to turn toward the northwest and west-northwest in response to the above mention ridge building westward over the extreme eastern tropical Atlantic. The NHC forecast track is based on the various consensus aids and is similar to the previous advisory.
Forecaster Roberts. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).