Tropical Storm Halong 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Halong 2025 (台風22号) south of Japan. Current wind speed 75km/h. Max 205km/h.

Halong is located 102 km east of Iwo To, and has tracked west-northwestward at 7 km/h (4 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 5.5 meters (18 feet).

Halong is forecast to track west-northwestward, along the southern portion of an extension of the subtropical ridge centered to the northeast over the next 2 days.

In around 2 days, Halong is forecast to begin rounding the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge to the east. In around 3 days, a turn to the northeast is expected as the system continues to round the subtropical ridge.

Track speeds will then increase as the system begins to interact with the strong midlatitude westerlies to the north. Extratropical transition is not expected to start within the forecast period as the upper-level flow remains zonal.

There continues to be very low confidence in the timing of the recurve, however, models are in far better agreement on a recurve well before interacting with the northern Ryukyu Islands.

Regarding intensity, Halong is forecast to rapidly intensify over the next 24 hours (60 knots) to 48 (110 knots). The vortex is expected to be completely aligned in around 18 hours and the poleward outflow channel is expected to significantly improve, aiding in the rapid intensification (RI).

After 3 days, westerly shear is expected to quickly increase, causing the system to weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. Model guidance continues to be in poor agreement, though it is getting better.

The primary outliers are now the ECMWF ensemble mean, GALWEM, and UKMET. These models show a later, and shallower recurve, interacting with the northern Ryukyu Islands and southern Kyushu.

The remainder of guidance has an earleir recurve, beginning far southeast of Kyushu. The JTWC track forecast has significantly changed and follows more closely to the bulk of reliable guidance.

Intensity guidance is in moderate agreement with all models showing intensification over the next 3 days. Peak intensities range from 155 km/h (85 knots) (GFS) to 250 km/h (135 knots) (COAMPS-TC).

The JTWC intensity forecast is placed slightly higher than consensus with overall medium confidence.