Tropical Cyclone Fina 2025-2026

Live tracking map, satellite, radar, and forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Fina 2025-2026 in the Timor Sea. Current wind speed 120km/h. Max 155km/h.

Fina is located 257 km northeast of Darwin, Australia, and has tracked south-southwestward at 7 km/h (4 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 6.1 meters (20 feet).

Fina is forecast to continue tracking southwestward, along the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge centered south of the Gulf of Carpentaria throughout the entirety of the forecast period.

Fina is forecast to make an initial landfall along the western edge of the Garig Gunak Barlu National Park in around 12 hours before entering the Van Diemen Gulf.

Fina will then track through the Clarence Strait and skirt the coast over the next 36 hours, passing just off the coast of Darwin in around 30 hours.

Fina is then expected to enter the northern portion of the Bonaparte Gulf in around 2 days. A final landfall is forecast to occur within the northern Kimberley coast just after 3 days.

Regarding intensity, Fina is forecast to steadily intensify over the next 2 days as the environment remains overall favorable with low shear and a moist environment.

The vortex is forecast to remain off the coast, limiting frictional effects, and allowing Fina to take advantage of the very warm sea surface temperatures in the area.

After 2 days, northwesterly shear increases to around 35 km/h (20 knots) and dry air begins to impact the vortex. This is expected to cause Fina to weaken as it approaches the coast in around 3 days.

Once Fina makes its final landfall, terrain interaction will cause the vortex to quickly deteriorate with dissipation forecast to occur in around 5 days.

Model guidance is in good agreement over the next 3 days with the exception of GALWEM, which tracks the vortex much further west than the remainder of guidance.

Discounting the outlier, there is a 157 km cross-track spread at 3 days. After 3 days, models begin to diverge with some models tracking the system westward, along the coast (GFS and ECMWF) while others continue to drive the vortex southwestward (GDM and EC-AIFS).

The JTWC track forecast is placed close to the multi-model consensus over the next 3 days and closer to the GDM ensemble mean thereafter. Intensity guidance continues to have a significant outlier in HAFS-A, which peaks the system at 240 km/h (130 knots) at 60 hours.

The remainder of guidance suggests a range between marginal intensification and marginal weakening over the next 3 days. The JTWC intensity forecast is placed slightly higher than the bulk of guidance with overall low confidence.

Small adjustments in the track could result in large changes to the intensity forecast depending on the proximity to land.