Tropical Cyclone Fabien 2023

Satellite images, weather maps and tracks of Intense Tropical Cyclone Fabien 2023, May 12 - 22. Max wind speed 185km/h.

Fabien is located 563 km southwest of Diego Garcia, and has moved south-southwestward at 6 km/h (3 knots) over the past 6 hours.

Fabien will continue tracking generally poleward over the next 2 days. During this time, the environment surrounding the system will provide enough energy to maintain its current intensity, due primarily to relatively low wind shear and marginally favorable outflow.

The system will become more asymmetric as the upper-level circulation tilts and decouples from the LLCC in 24 hours. The exposed and quickly deteriorating LLCC will then turn sharply westward and dissipate in 3 days.

Forecast models are in fair agreement with a bulk of the guidance generally following the JTWC forecast track, with several members showing increasing cross-track discrepancy through the forecast period. For this reason the JTWC forecast track is placed with medium confidence.

Reliable model intensity guidance is on good agreement with all members showing general stagnation over the next 2 days and dissipation thereafter. For this reason the JTWC intensity forecast is placed with high confidence.

Maximum significant wave height is 5.2 meters (17 feet).

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).