Satellite images and tracking maps of Category 1 Hurricane Estelle 2022, July 12 - 21. Max wind speed 85mph.
Estelle has not produced a significant amount of deep convection for the past 12 hours or so. Therefore the system no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone and this will be the last advisory. The remnant low of Estelle should continue to gradually spin down and degenerate into a trough by this weekend. This is consistent with the forecasts from global models.
Visible satellite imagery shows that the low-level center is a little farther south of the previous track forecast. The updated prediction reflects this slight southward shift. The post-tropical cyclone should move westward or a little north of westward in the low-level winds for the next couple of days.
For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).