Tropical Cyclone Dudzai 2026

Live tracking map, satellite, radar, and forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai 2026 east of Mauritius in the South Indian Ocean. Current wind speed 165km/h. Max 220km/h.

Dudzai is located 1209 km south-southwest of Diego Garcia, and has tracked west-southwestward at 13 km/h (7 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 9.1 meters (30 feet).

Dudzai is projected to continue tracking southwestward under the influence of the northwestern edge of the governing subtropical ridge. This trajectory is forecast to persist over the next 3 days as the cyclone continues to circumnavigate the edge of the ridge.

At approximately the next 4 days, the system will attain the ridge crest and initiate a southeastward recurvature, navigating the southwestern flank of the ridge.

Forward motion is projected to accelerate in around 4 days as the deep-layer steering flow intensifies and the system begins to interact with the baroclinic zone of the midlatitude westerlies.

As the systems interacts with the deep upper-level trough, the wind shear will increase and cooler, drier air will enter the circulation at an impressive rate.

The system will begin to lose its symmetric structure, which will mark the beginning of the subtropical transition phase expected to conclude at or before 5 days.

Concerning intensity, Dudzai is forecast to undergo rapid intensity decay over the next 24 hours, driven by the strong northwesterly wind shear and a decreasing ocean heat content as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures.

In around 36 hours, this attenuation is expected to temporarily abate due to a relaxation of the wind shear and an enhancement of the poleward outflow jet.

The weakening trajectory is forecast to resume in around 4 days as westerly wind shear and the intrusion of a drier air mass increase. Model guidance exhibits a high degree of consensus throughout the forecast period, with no significant divergence amongst the guidance suite.

The cross-track spread at 3 days is only 100 nautical miles, diverging to 463 km in 5 days. The along-track dispersion at 5 days increases substantially, corresponding with the projected southeastward acceleration of the system. This along-track spread of 1204 km at 5 days is the principal factor diminishing forecast confidence in the JTWC track beyond 3 days.

The JTWC track forecast is positioned in close proximity to the multi-model consensus mean throughout the forecast period. Intensity guidance shows a moderate consensus, with most models depicting rapid weakening over the next 24 hours followed by a period of relatively constant intensity over the next 4 days and weakening afterwards.

The JTWC intensity forecast is similarly aligned with the consensus, holding medium confidence throughout the forecast period.