Tropical Storm Cosme 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Cosme 2025 in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Current wind speed 50mph. Max 70mph.

Although Cosme's low-level center is obscured by high-level cirrus, it does appear to be displaced a bit to the northeast of the remaining deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease, with objective numbers ranging between 35–45 knots, and subjective Dvorak CI numbers between 45–55 knots. The advisory intensity is set at 50 mph (45 knots) based on a blend of these numbers. An earlier ASCAT pass showed winds just over 45 mph (40 knots) in the southwestern quadrant, but the southeastern quadrant, where there could be stronger winds, was not sampled.

ASCAT and recent visible imagery suggest Cosme's center is a little west of where it was placed this morning (10 June). Still, the storm has turned north-northwestward with an initial motion of 330/3 knots. Cosme is expected to turn northward and then northeastward and speed up a bit through Wednesday, before turning back to the north-northwest on Thursday. This track will take Cosme over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Combined with moderate-to-strong northeasterly shear, these conditions should cause quick weakening, and GFS- and ECWMF-based simulated satellite images suggest that Cosme will lose its deep convection overnight. As a result, the NHC official forecast shows Cosme becoming a remnant low within 24 hours, with dissipation now expected by 60 hours.