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Tropical Storm Celia 2022

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LIVE updates, satellite images and tracking maps of Tropical Storm Celia 2022. Current wind speed 65mph. Max 75mph.

Celia has the appearance of becoming better organized, with subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates of T4.0 all suggesting it's at hurricane strength. However, two recent scatterometer passes only showed winds as high as 35-40 knots, so any strengthening of the wind field is apparently lagging the improved convective structure. Because of this large discrepancy in estimates, the initial intensity is held at 65 mph (55 knots). The scatterometer data also indicate that Celia is asymmetric, with no tropical-storm-force winds on the west side.

Celia's speed has slowed further, and the initial motion estimate is 285/5 knots. This is about the slowest Celia is expected to move, and its forward speed is forecast to gradually increase over the next five days as the ridge to the north strengthens and expands westward. There are no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning on this cycle, and the updated NHC track prediction is basically an update of the morning forecast.

Celia still has a small window of time for the wind field to strengthen and catch up to the satellite presentation, and the NHC forecast continues to show it becoming a hurricane in the next 12 to 24 hours. This forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus aid. However, cooler waters ahead of the storm are expected to induce weakening after 36 hours, and Celia is likely to become post-tropical by day 4 when it loses its deep convection.

Forecaster Berg. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).