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Tropical Storm Blanca 2021

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Satellite images and tracking maps of Tropical Storm Blanca 2021, May 28 - June 6. Max wind speed 60mph.

Blanca has been devoid of organized deep convection since midday yesterday (June 3), with the last convective burst near the center ceasing over 15 hours ago. Since that time there have been a few convective cells noted 120 to 150 nautical miles east-northeast of the center, but these have been short lived. This is a big change from this time yesterday, when a large burst of deep convection developed during the diurnal maximum close the center of the cyclone. This trend is indicative of the strong west-southwesterly shear and the dry and stable atmospheric environment taking their toll on the system. These hostile environmental factors are not expected to improve, while the forward path of the cyclone takes it over progressively cooler waters. Therefore, it is anticipated that persistent deep convection will not redevelop near the center of the system, and Blanca is being designated as a remnant low. The low is expected to gradually spin down and is likely to dissipate within the next few days. The overnight ASCAT overpasses did not sample the center of the system, so a blend of the T/CI numbers of 1.0/2.0 from the most recent satellite intensity estimate from TAFB supports maintaining the advisory intensity at 30 mph (25 knots).

Over the past 12 hours Blanca has been moving west-northwestward, or 300/06 knots. A turn to the west is expected later this morning (June 4) as the shallow system gets caught up in the flow around a low-level ridge to the north. This westward motion should continue until the system dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus.

This is the last NHC advisory on Blanca. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Latto. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

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