Tropical Cyclone Bheki 2024-2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Bheki 2024-2025 in the southwest Indian Ocean. Current wind speed 185km/h.

Bheki is located 1619 km east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius, and has tracked southwestward at 15 km/h (8 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 9.1 meters (30 feet).

Bheki is forecast to continue tracking southwestward over the next 36 hours along the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge.

Track speeds are expected to slow as a break in the ridge ensues. In around 2 days, ridging is expected to build to the south of the system and will drive it generally westward through the remainder of the forecast period.

Regarding intensity, Bheki is expected to maintain intensity over the next 12 hours. After 12 hours, sea surface temperatures will begin to cool and wind shear will increase to around 45–55 km/h (25–30 knots). These two factors will cause Bheki to weaken quickly in 12 to 48 hours.

After 2 days, a steady weakening trend is forecast as it tracks westward and approaches Madagascar, nearing tropical depression strength near the end of the forecast period.

Model guidance is in good agreement regarding the track of Bheki over the next 36 hours. After 36 hours, models quickly diverge to a 296 km cross-track spread at 2 days.

Spread continues to open over the next 5 days with positions ranging from 14S to 22S latitudes. GALWEM makes up the northernmost member of guidance while ECMWF makes up the southernmost member.

The JTWC track forecast is placed close to consensus with medium confidence over the next 3 days and low confidence thereafter. Intensity guidance is in moderate agreement throughout the forecast period.

HAFS-A keeps the vortex stronger than HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and GFS though.

The JTWC intensity forecast is placed close to consensus with overall medium confidence.