Tropical Cyclone Bakung 2025-2026

Live tracking map, satellite, radar, and forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Bakung 2025-2026 near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands in the South Indian Ocean. Current wind speed 95km/h. Max 150km/h.

Bakung is located 594 km west-northwest of the Cocos Islands, and has tracked eastward at 6 km/h (3 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 4.9 meters (16 feet).

Bakung continues to drift slowly eastward along the southern side of the near-equatorial ridge to the north. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours as the near-equatorial ridge remains entrenched along the equator west of Sumatra. However, as the system weakens after 24 hours, it will steadily come under the influence of the lower-level flow pattern, which will push it onto a northward trajectory by the end of the forecast period.

In terms of intensity, Bakung is forecast to steadily weaken through the forecast period due to persistently high northerly shear and dry air intrusion.

The system is expected to dissipate as a tropical cyclone in 2 days. Deterministic track guidance is actually in much better agreement than it was 24 hours ago.

All members of the consensus now agree that the system will move east-northeastward over the next 24 to 36 hours before turning sharply northward in 2 days.

The main disagreement between the models is just how far east the system will go prior to turning northward. The ECMWF-AIFS and ECEPS mean track the system the furthest east before turning, while the NAVGEM and GFS turn it the earliest.

The resulting cross-track spread is a modest 204 km. The JTWC forecast is placed near the Google DeepMind (GDM) and ECMWF trackers, with high confidence.

Intensity guidance is also in good agreement, with all mesoscale models indicating steady weakening to 55 km/h (30 knots) in 2 days. The SHIPS (both NAVGEM and GFS) however bottom out at 65 km/h (35 knots) at 36 hours and hold fast until the next 60 hours when they show a slow intensification trend.

The JTWC forecast is placed near the CTCX tracker with high confidence.