Tropical Depression Bailu 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Depression Bailu 2025 (台風10号) in the western Pacific Ocean. Current wind speed 55km/h. Max 65km/h.

Bailu is located 967 km east-southeast of Misawa, Japan, and has tracked eastward at 31 km/h (17 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 5.5 meters (18 feet).

Bailu is forecast to continue tracking generally eastward over the next 24 hours, along the northern side of an extension of the subtropical ridge centered south of Honshu.

As the ridge moves further away and the extension weakens, the system could track a bit south of due east for short time over the next 24 hours.

A weakness develops in the ridge in 24 hours, and Bailu will slow down as this weakness moves south of the system, before a new ridge builds in from the east.

Transition of the steering influence to the eastern ridge will occur quickly, and TD will begin to accelerate towards the northeast in around 36 hours.

The 200 hPa trough will be favorably positioned relative to the low-level circulation center for the next 12 to 24 hours and will continue to support enhanced poleward outflow. But this will not be enough to offset the otherwise unfavorable conditions, and the system is forecast to maintain a flat intensity profile for the next 36 hours.

The upper trough will move out ahead of the low-level circulation center in 24 to 36 hours, leaving Bailu behind, under convergent flow aloft and a deep pool of dry air aloft.

The remnant vortex will continue to slowly weaken through the remainder of the forecast period, while simultaneously beginning extratropical transition (ETT).

Completion of ETT is anticipated in 3 days, and likely as early as the next 60 hours. Deterministic track guidance is in very good agreement through the entire forecast period, with cross-track spread increasing gradually to just 213 km by the end of the forecast period.

Along-track spread increases to 370 km in 3 days. The JTWC forecast is positioned near the consensus mean through the forecast with high confidence.

Intensity guidance is in good agreement, though it weakens the system too quickly and the JTWC forecast is placed about 10 km/h (5 knots) higher than the consensus with high confidence.