Tropical Cyclone Vince 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Vince 2025 in the southwest Indian Ocean. Current wind speed 175km/h. Max 250km/h.

Vince is located 1182 km east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius, and has tracked south-southwestward at 19 km/h (10 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 12.2 meters (40 feet).

Vince is forecast to continue tracking generally southward, along the western edge of the subtropical ridge over the next 36 hours.

After 36 hours, the system will turn southeastward as it rounds the ridge axis and accelerates toward the baroclinic zone. Extratropical transition is now the forecast transition type due to the quick onset after 2 days.

A sharp long wave trough will cause the system to complete extratropical transition in 3 days, possibly the next 60 hours. Regarding intensity, Vince is forecast to continue weakening in response to cooling sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear.

Shear will rise to above 75 km/h (40 knots) at 36 hours and sea surface temperatures drop to below 25°C around that same time. As a result, intensity is expected to drop to around 95 km/h (50 knots) at 2 days.

After 2 days, the weakening trend lessens due to baroclinic forcing. Model guidance is in very good agreement over the next 2 days with a 117 km cross-track spread at that time.

After 2 days, along-track spread increases as the vortex begins to interact with the jet max to the south. Overall, the JTWC track forecast is placed with high confidence.

Intensity guidance is also in good agreement with all models suggesting a similar rate of weakening.

The JTWC intensity forecast is placed with high confidence as well.