Invest 96W
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Live tracking map, satellite, radar, and forecasts of Invest 96W in the western Pacific Ocean. Medium chance of development. Current wind speed 35km/h.
Maximum sustained surface winds are around 35–45 km/h (18–23 knots). Minimum sea-level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 hPa.
Satellite imagery shows an exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) with collapsing convection in the western edge.
A 12/22:22 UTC ASCAT pass shows a broad outer rotation with a RMW of about 90 nautical miles, as well as a tight swath of 30 km/h winds (15 knots) to the eastern semicircle of the smaller exposed LLCC.
Analysis shows a favorable environment for development with fair upper-level outflow, low easterly wind shear (10–15 knots), and warm sea surface temperatures (29–30°C).
Forecast models show 96W tracking westward as it gradually consolidates and intensified. Both ensemble and deterministic models are in good agreement that 96W will develop but the deterministic models are generally more aggressive with the timeline, while the ensembles show a slower development timeline.