Invest 96W (Crising)
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Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Invest 96W east of Luzon in the Philippines. High chance of development. Current wind speed 55km/h.
The system is currently classified as a monsoon depression, generally characterized as a large cyclonic circulation, greater than 1111 km diameter, with near gale-fore winds over the eastern edge and a weak core of light winds.
Infrared imagery shows a broad, slowly consolidating low-level circulation with flaring convection, multiple mesovortices rotating cyclonically, and extensive convective banding over the eastern and northern edges wrapping into the northwest quadrant.
Microwave imagery microwave pass displays fragmented banding wrapping around the broad center. A partial 17/12:25 UTC ASCAT-C pass shows a broad center with 45–55 km/h (25–30 knots) along the eastern edge of the semi-circle.
Analysis shows a marginal environment for development with moderate to high wind shear 35–45 km/h (20–25 knots), good poleward upper-level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures of 30–31°C.
Deterministic and ensemble models maintain a broad, disorganized structure with a northwestward track over the next 24 hours. The models consolidate the system into a tropical cyclone, with 65–85 km/h winds (35–45 knots) over the next 12 to 24 hours.