Invest 96W
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Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Invest 96W northwest of Luzon in the Philippines. Medium chance of development. Current wind speed 35km/h.
Maximum sustained surface winds are around 35–45 km/h (18–23 knots). Minimum sea-level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 hPa.
Satellite imagery shows a broad, slowly consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) with weakly flaring convection.
A recent GMI microwave pass shows the broad nature of the systems structure and fragmented convective banding. A recent 24/04:00 UTC SHIP observation to the southwest of the circulation shows 31 km/h (17 knots) north-northwesterly winds.
Analysis shows favorable conditions for development with good wind shear of 20–30 km/h (10–15 knots), good poleward upper-level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures of 29–30°C.
Deterministic and ensemble models are split on development likelihood over the next 1 to 2 days. Deterministic models forecast 96W to only reach winds up to 35 km/h (20 knots), whereas ensemble guidance shows multiple members reaching 45 km/h (25 knots) and higher.