Tropical Storm Dexter 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Dexter 2025 in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Current wind speed 45mph.

Dexter continues to be disrupted by strong westerly vertical wind shear, with its associated deep convection being displaced to the east of the low-level center. The storm's cloud pattern is very ragged-looking at this time and lacks convective banding features. Satellite-based intensity estimates using subjective and objective methods range from 35 mph (30 knots) to 55 mph (47 knots). Blending these values, the advisory intensity estimate remains 45 mph (40 knots), though a recent scatterometer pass suggests this might be generous.

Although there is some uncertainty in the center location using infrared imagery, it appears that the forward speed has slowed somewhat and the current motion estimate is around 050/11 knots. Dexter is near the southern edge of a belt of mid-level westerlies. The track guidance is in general agreement on a northeastward to east-northeastward motion for the next several days. However, it is possible that the system could become completely decoupled and move more slowly in the low-level flow. The official forecast assumes that the cyclone will retain enough vertical coherency to be steered at least partially by the mid-level flow. The NHC track forecast is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.

There is no sign that the strong shear in Dexter's environment will abate. In fact, the SHIPS model indicates that the vertical wind shear will increase even more over the next few days. Therefore, it is not likely that the system will be able to strengthen as a true tropical cyclone. The official forecast allows for slight intensification due to baroclinic processes. Simulated infrared imagery and the FSU phase space predictions from the global models suggest that Dexter will likely make the transition into an extratropical cyclone in 2–3 days.