Invest 94W (Pilandok)
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Live tracking map, satellite, radar, and forecasts of Invest 94W in the Philippine Sea. High chance of development. Current wind speed 45km/h.
Maximum sustained surface winds are around 35–45 km/h (20–25 knots). Minimum sea-level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 hPa.
Infrared imagery shows a broad low-level circulation center obscured by persistent convection along the western and southern extent of the system.
A MetOp-B bullseye ASCAT revealed weak winds near the center of 94W (Philippine name Pilandok), surrounded by elevated winds up to 46 km/h (25 knots). The environmental analysis of the area shows conducive conditions for development with low (10–15 knots) wind shear, warm (29–30°C) sea surface temperatures, plentiful moisture, and a strong equatorward outflow in the upper levels.
Only a slight tightening of the wind field is needed to designate the system as a tropical depression. The majority of global and ensemble members show that 94W will have a short window to consolidate, after which time, the closed circulation will open up.
94W currently lies along a trough that extends from Taiwan to the Mariana Islands.
Over the next few days, development of additional, northwest-tracking circulations along this trough will be possible. That may lead to more direct impacts to the Ryukyu Islands.
While this scenario is supported by ensemble systems, the specific impacts will be predicated on the evolution of these subsequent circulations, which have not yet formed. Therefore, significant uncertainty exists for tropical cyclone potential over the next few days as it relates to the region of the East China Sea.