Invest 94P (Tropical Low 34U)
Last Modified:
Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Invest 94P south of the Solomon Islands in the South Pacific Ocean. Low chance of development. Current wind speed 45km/h.
Maximum sustained surface winds are around 45–50 km/h (23–28 knots).
Infrared imagery shows a poorly organized low-level circulation center (LLCC) obscured by flaring convection that is sheared from the southwest.
A partial 10/11:32 UTC ASCAT pass shows an elongated circulation with its strongest winds isolated to the southwest. Analysis for the area shows marginally favorable conditions for development with low to moderate (15–20 knots) wind shear offset by warm (30°C) sea surface temperatures and moderate poleward outflow aloft.
Global deterministic models are in fair agreement that the area of convection 94P (Tropical Low 34U) will continue southeast as it gradually intensifies over the next 2 days.
Ensemble guidance agrees on a southeastward track with ECENS being more aggressive on development than the GEFS.