Tropical Depression 05E 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Depression 05E 2025 south of Guatemala. Current wind speed 35mph. Max 90mph.

The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tuesday and quickly strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as it approaches southern Mexico. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of southern Mexico.

The depression will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain.

Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center crosses the coast.

Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the system has developed a well-defined circulation, and deep convection has been consolidating near and north of the center. Therefore, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 35 mph (30 knots) based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 10 mph (10 knots). A slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as the ridge currently steering the system weakens. Although the models are in fair agreement, the complexity of the track moving parallel to the coast of southern Mexico means that small changes in the system's heading will cause notable differences on where and when the most significant wind impacts will occur. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is generally similar to the previous one. Users are reminded that the average 60-hour NHC track error is a little more than 60 nautical miles.

The environmental conditions are nearly ideal for intensification with the vertical wind shear expected to be less than 10 mph (10 knots), mid-level humidities near or above 80%, and sea surface temperatures over 29°C for the next 2 or 3 days. Nearly all of the models show the system strengthening significantly, and given the conducive conditions, rapid intensification is a possibility. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the consensus models and shows the cyclone becoming a tropical storm by early Tuesday and a hurricane before it reaches Mexico.

Based on this forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of southern Mexico. Watches will likely be extended westward on Tuesday.