Invest 93S
Last Modified:
Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Invest 93S near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands in the South Indian Ocean. High chance of development. Current wind speed 45km/h.
Maximum sustained surface winds are around 50–60 km/h (28–33 knots). Minimum sea-level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 hPa.
Infrared imagery shows a broad and ill-defined, low-level circulation (LLC) with curved banding appearing along the western edge.
A lack of recent microwave imagery or scatterometer data precludes a high confidence analysis of the lower-level structure of the system. Analysis shows marginal conditions for development with low to moderate (15–20 knots) wind shear, good equatorward outflow aloft, and warm (29–30°C) sea surface temperatures. However, the broad nature of the rotation is inhibiting consolidation and development at the moment.
Deterministic models and ensembles models disagree on whether or not 93S will develop. Deterministic models show either very slow development to a borderline TC within 24 hours, but ensembles are showing a stronger development signal, as the system tracks southwestward.