Tropical Storm Dalila 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm Dalila 2025 south of Mexico. Current wind speed 40mph. Max 65mph.

The outer bands of Tropical Depression Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

The Tropical Depression is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of that area.

Latest satellite imagery depicts that the disturbance south of Mexico has continued to become better organized this morning (13 June). First-light visible imagery shows that the system has developed a well-defined low-level center, and infrared imagery shows a large burst of organized deep convection with cold cloud tops near -80°C. Thus, the disturbance now meets the requirements to be classified a tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates remain around 35 mph (30 knots) with a T2.0 from TAFB. Thus, the intensity is held at 35 mph (30 knots), and the system is now Tropical Depression Four-E.

The initial motion remains uncertain given the recent formation of a well-defined low-level center, but it is estimated at 335/9 knots. A mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen and build over Mexico later today (13 June), which will cause a more northwestward motion this afternoon and evening, followed by a west-northwestward motion later this weekend. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one, which lies near the simple consensus aids. Along the forecast track, the system will parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico, remaining offshore.

As the depression continues to become better organized, steady strengthening is forecast over the next 36–48 hours, with the system over warm sea surface temperatures. However, there is some moderate easterly vertical wind shear that the system will have to deal with. As the system took a little longer to consolidate, the latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower, with a peak intensity of 65 mph (55 knots), which lies near the simple consensus. However, some of the regional hurricane models continue to show a higher peak. Beyond 48 hours, the system will cross into a drier, more stable air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures which will lead to steady weakening. Global models show the system struggling to produce convection by 72 hours, becoming a remnant low, and then dissipating by 120 hours.