Tropical Storm 03S 2025-2026

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Storm 03S 2025-2026 in the southwest Indian Ocean. Current wind speed 65km/h. Max 75km/h.

03S is located 682 km west-southwest of Diego Garcia, and has tracked west-southwestward at 15 km/h (8 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 4.3 meters (14 feet).

03S is forecast to track generally westward under the broad ridging area to the south.

As an upper level trough is temporarily causing a break in the ridge directly to the south, 03S is making a slight west-southwestward turn. However, within the next 12 to 24 hours ridging is expected to build again and extend south of 03S. As a result, in around 24 hours, the system is expected to turn west-northwestward and track along the northern edge of the ridge throughout the forecast period.

In regard to intensity, 03S is forecast to oscillate around 65–75 km/h (35–40 knots), with slight intensification expected within the next 24 to 36 hours, as the system moves westward and away from the dry air.

In around 4 days, 03S will encounter cooler waters (25–26°C sea surface temperatures), increasing wind shear, as well as more dry air eroding the vortex from the north. As a result, the system is expected to begin weakening and dissipate in 5 days.

Model guidance is in good agreement in regard to the general trajectory, however uncertainty associated particularly with the along-track spread results in overall low confidence in the long-term track forecast.

Cross-track spread is estimated at 232 km at 2 days, expanding to over 463 km by the end of the forecast period. Along-track spread at 5 days is estimated at over 556 km further adding to track uncertainty.

In terms of intensity, JTWC forecast is assessed with overall medium confidence with majority of the available guidance showing a steady 55–75 km/h (30–40 knots) maximum wind speed values throughout the forecast period.

JTWC intensity forecast is laid close to the multi-model consensus, just below the guidance from HAFS and HWRF, while slightly above COAMPS, particularly beyond the initial 24 hours.

GFS deterministic guidance also shows borderline warning criteria intensities of 55–65 km/h (30–35 knots) throughout the current forecast period.