Tropical Depression 04W 2025

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Depression 04W 2025 in the western Pacific Ocean. Current wind speed 55km/h. Max 100km/h.

04W is located 1361 km southeast of Yokosuka, Japan, and has tracked north-northwestward at 15 km/h (8 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 4.3 meters (14 feet).

04W is forecast to continue tracking north-northwestward along the western edge of the subtropical ridge over the next 2 days.

In around 2 days, ridging to the west will build and pull the vortex toward the northeast through the remainder of the forecast period. Regarding intensity, 04W is forecast to marginally intensify over the next 24 hours as the TUTT cell continues to affect the vortex, hindering development.

After 24 hours, the system will have sufficiently distanced itself from the TUTT cell which will allow for further intensification as shear drops to around 10–20 km/h (5–10 knots).

A peak intensity of 100 km/h (55 knots) is forecast to occur in around 3 to 4 days. After 4 days, sea surface temperatures will begin to cool, halting any further intensification.

In 5 days, sea temperatures are expected to drop to around 25°C, which will initiate a weakening trend. Additionally, an upper-level trough will move eastward and begin interacting with the system in around 5 days, causing shear to dramatically increase in the extended forecast.

Model guidance is in good agreement over the next 3 days with a 222 km cross-track spread at 3 days. Afterward, models significantly diverge due to differing interactions with the upper-level trough.

GFS deterministic has the system turn northwestward vice northeastward after 4 days as the vortex gets caught underneath ridging to the north. However, the majority of ensemble members show the northeastward track.

The JTWC track forecast is placed close to the multi-model consensus over the next 4 days and then slightly to the east over the next 5 days.

Intensity guidance is in moderate agreement with HAFS-A and GFS being the least aggressive while COAMPS-TC (GFS based) is the most aggressive model with a peak intensity of 150 km/h (80 knots) at 84 hours.

The JTWC intensity forecast is placed in line with the consensus throughout the forecast period with medium confidence.