Invest 90W
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Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Invest 90W near Guam. Medium chance of development. Current wind speed 35km/h.
Maximum sustained surface winds are around 35–45 km/h (18–23 knots). Minimum sea-level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 hPa.
Infrared imagery shows flaring convection building over a slowly consolidating cusp or low-level circulation center (LLCC), at the northern end of an easterly wave feature.
A combination of an 18/00:15 UTC and 17/23:51 UTC partial ASCAT passes revealed the fact that 90W remains primarily a wave with a rapidly developing cusp at the northern end of it.
Southerly winds of 35–45 km/h (20–25 knots) extend from southwest of Chuuk to the northwest of Fananu, then turn sharply to easterlies at the latitude of 90W, with embedded pockets of 46 km/h (25 knots) easterly winds extending to a point about 537 km southeast of Guam.
Environmental conditions are assessed to be moderately favorable with good equatorward outflow and very warm (30–31°C) sea surface temperatures and low to moderate (15–20 knots) wind shear.
Forecast models are in good agreement that 90W will move northnorthwest into substantially lower shear over the next 24 to 36 hours but do not currently show the system developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. However, elevated winds of 45–55 km/h (25–30 knots) are possible along the northern edge of the system, in the gradient flow, as it passes to the south of Guam.
Ensemble development is strong on this circulation with ECENS being the most favorable model intensity wise however GEFS is still in agreement on a northwestward track.