Tropical Depression 19W 2024
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Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Tropical Depression 19W 2024 near the Northern Mariana Islands. Current wind speed 55km/h. Max 95km/h.
19W is located 922 km south-southeast of Iwo To, and has tracked north-northwestward at 13 km/h (7 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 4.6 meters (15 feet).
19W is forecast to continue tracking northwestward, along the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge to the northeast over the next 2 days.
In around 2 days, 19W is forecast to begin rounding the axis of the ridge and turn more northward. In 3 days, 19W will start to track northeastward after rounding the ridge axis and continue on that track until it enters the baroclinic zone at in around 5 days.
Regarding intensity, 19W is expected to maintain around 55–65 km/h (30–35 knots) over the next 36 hours due to the increasing wind shear and reduced outflow as a TUTT cell to its northeast propagates westward almost directly on top of the system, hindering outflow.
Dry air will also remain a factor in the hindrance of further intensification. However, after 36 hours, the TUTT cell is expected to have moved westward of the system, allowing for a more conducive environment.
The environment is also anticipated to moisten after the TUTT cell passes allowing for intensification. As a result, 19W is forecast to steadily intensify to around 110 km/h (60 knots) at 4 days.
In around 4 days, the system will begin interacting with the baroclinic zone and wind shear will quickly rise, weakening 19W to around 95 km/h (50 knots) as it transitions into an extratropical cyclone.
Model guidance is in good agreement concerning the tracking of 19W with a 389 km cross-track spread at 2 days. Along track spread does increase considerably after 2 days as the system gets poleward of the ridge axis though.
GFS is the fastest model while the combination of UKMET and GALWEM are the slowest. The JTWC track forecast is placed near the midpoint of the two scenarios, close to consensus, with high confidence over the next 3 days with medium confidence thereafter.
Intensity guidance is in moderate agreement with stagnant intensity over the next 36 hours. Peak intensities vary with HAFS-A suggesting a peak of around 95 km/h (50 knots) while GFS and the COAMPS-TC (GFS based) both suggest a peak of around 130 km/h (70 knots) at 4 days.
The JTWC intensity forecast is placed with overall medium confidence with a peak of 110 km/h (60 knots) between the two extremes.