Satellite images and tracking maps of Deep Depression 04B 2021, November 8 - 12. Max wind speed 65km/h.
04B is expected to continue on a west-northwest track towards the coast of India and make landfall near Chennai, India within the next 6 hours.
04B is expected to maintain current intensity until it reaches land where it will begin to weaken and erode as it interacts with the terrain over the next 12 hours.
After 12 hours, 04B will move westerly across the Indian peninsula, rapidly dissipate over the rougher terrain in central India in around 24 hours.
The remnants of 04B will continue tracking over India and may move over the Arabian Sea, however, there is low probability of regeneration. Guidance for the short track is in generally fair agreement, except for NAVGEM and AFUM model guidance, which are the far left outliers and turn the cyclone to the west-southwest prior to landfall.
The JTWC forecast lies within the tightest grouping of models of ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET lying just to the right of the consensus mean with medium confidence.
The intensity guidance is also in fair agreement with a steady weakening after landfall.
Maximum significant wave height is 3.7 meters (12 feet).
Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).